{"id":1352,"date":"2018-03-05T16:54:25","date_gmt":"2018-03-05T13:54:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/?p=1352"},"modified":"2022-11-03T14:54:36","modified_gmt":"2022-11-03T11:54:36","slug":"venus-gecisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/venus-gecisi\/","title":{"rendered":"Ven\u00fcs Ge\u00e7i\u015fi"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/h6>\n

Yery\u00fcz\u00fc G\u00fcne\u015f’ten ne kadar uzakta?\u00a0<\/em>Eski Yunan’dan beri bilimci ve filozoflar\u0131n sordu\u011fu bir soru bu.\u00a0 G\u00fcne\u015f sisteminin ke\u015ffinde \u00f6nemli bir rol oynar.\u00a0 \u00a0Yery\u00fcz\u00fc’nden G\u00fcne\u015f’e olan uzakl\u0131\u011fa bir astronomik birim(AU) denir.\u00a0 \u00d6rne\u011fin, J\u00fcpiter gezegeni, g\u00fcne\u015ften 5,46 AU, yani Yery\u00fcz\u00fc’n\u00fcn G\u00fcne\u015f’e olan uzakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 5,46 kat\u0131 uzakl\u0131ktad\u0131r.\u00a0 Peki ama, bir AU bildi\u011fimiz uzunluk \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcleri cinsinden ne kadar?<\/p>\n

1716 da Edmund Halley bunu \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in bir yol tan\u0131mlad\u0131. G\u00f6kbilimciler, bilinen gezegenlerin y\u00f6r\u00fcngeleri hesaplamak i\u00e7in Newton’un hareket yasalar\u0131n\u0131 kullanm\u0131\u015flar ve her 113 y\u0131lda bir, Ven\u00fcs gezegeni ve Yery\u00fcz\u00fc’n\u00fcn g\u00f6reli konumlar\u0131n\u0131n Ven\u00fcs’\u00fc Yery\u00fcz\u00fc ile G\u00fcne\u015f’in aras\u0131na getirece\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015flerdi.\u00a0 En iyi teleskoplarla,\u00a0 bir kara nokta bi\u00e7iminde Ven\u00fcs’\u00fcn G\u00fcne\u015f’in y\u00fcz\u00fcnden ge\u00e7me s\u00fcresini g\u00f6k-bilimciler belirleyebilirlerdi.\u00a0 Bu s\u00fcre, Yery\u00fcz\u00fc’nde bulundu\u011funuz yere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak farkl\u0131 olacakt\u0131.\u00a0 \u00a0Halley, bu s\u00fcreyi Yery\u00fcz\u00fc’nde bir birinden \u00e7ok uzaktaki iki yerde \u00f6l\u00e7ebilirsek,\u00a0 Yery\u00fcz\u00fc ve Ven\u00fcs y\u00f6r\u00fcngelerinin g\u00f6reli uzakl\u0131klar\u0131 olan bu iki farkl\u0131 s\u00fcreyi Yery\u00fcz\u00fc’n\u00fcn G\u00fcne\u015f’ten uzakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirlemek i\u00e7in bir dizi karma\u015f\u0131k hesaplamada kullanabilece\u011fimizi g\u00f6sterdi.\u00a0 B\u00f6yle Yery\u00fcz\u00fc’ndeki iki noktadan, yaln\u0131zca temel geometri bilgisine sahip birisinin,\u00a0 AU’yu nas\u0131l tahmin edebilece\u011fi Kaynak [1, 2] de anlat\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Ven\u00fcs G\u00fcne\u015f’in y\u00fcz\u00fcnden ge\u00e7ti\u011finde, her ge\u00e7i\u015f aras\u0131 8 y\u0131l olmak \u00fczere, bunu iki kere yapar.\u00a0 Ven\u00fcs’\u00fcn beklenen sonraki ge\u00e7i\u015fleri 1761 ve 1769’da olacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Halley 1742’de \u00f6ld\u00fc, ama \u00f6nerisi ya\u015famaya devam etti.\u00a0 1761’e gelindi\u011finde, Rusya, Avustralya, Norve\u00e7, Fransa, ve \u0130ngiltere’de olay i\u00e7in do\u011fa felsefecileri haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Kolay ta\u015f\u0131nabilecek k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve hafif teleskoplar haz\u0131rlad\u0131lar.\u00a0 G\u00f6ze zarar vermeden G\u00fcne\u015f’e teleskopla do\u011frudan bak\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, teleskoplar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcy\u00fc G\u00fcne\u015f’in \u00f6n\u00fcnden ge\u00e7en Ven\u00fcs’e ili\u015fkin siyah noktan\u0131n ge\u00e7i\u015fini g\u00f6zleyebilecekleri bir ka\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek bi\u00e7imde kullanmay\u0131 planlad\u0131lar.<\/p>\n

1761’de, Yery\u00fcz\u00fc’n\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc belirlenmi\u015f ve haritas\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131, ancak \u00e7o\u011funlukla el de\u011fmemi\u015fti.\u00a0 \u00a0Yerle\u015fik Avrupa’da iki yer aras\u0131ndaki uzakl\u0131k, Halley’in \u00f6nerisi i\u00e7in \u00e7ok k\u0131sa oldu\u011fundan, Sibirya’dan Hindistan ve Sumatra’ya kadar uzanan y\u00f6nlerde maceraperestler yola \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 1761 ve 1769 ge\u00e7i\u015flerine bir d\u00fczineden fazla macerac\u0131 kat\u0131ld\u0131, ancak g\u00f6rece\u011fimiz \u00fczere hepsi de ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olamad\u0131.\u00a0 O d\u00f6nemde, bilim kimi bilimcilerin g\u00f6k-bilim, di\u011ferlerinin kimya, ve kimi di\u011ferlerinin fizik \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 noktaya gelememi\u015fti.\u00a0 Bu “do\u011fa felsefecileri” uzak yerlere seyahat eder ve geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcklerinde g\u00f6rd\u00fckleri bitki ve hayvan ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131, insan t\u00fcrlerini, co\u011frafyay\u0131, g\u00f6ky\u00fcz\u00fcn\u00fc tarif ederlerdi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile bu macerac\u0131lar Ven\u00fcs’\u00fcn ge\u00e7i\u015f an\u0131ndan daha fazlas\u0131 i\u00e7in yola \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Gezdikleri yerlerin ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 g\u00f6zlemlerini elde etmeyi planlarlard\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu i\u015f i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan harcamalar nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131lan\u0131rd\u0131? \u015eimdi, yirmi-birinci y\u00fczy\u0131lda, bilimsel \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma giderleri\u00a0 yard\u0131msever kurulu\u015flar ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetler taraf\u0131ndan kar\u015f\u0131lan\u0131r, ancak bu t\u00fcr destekler 1945 de II D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda yayg\u0131nla\u015fabildi.\u00a0 On-sekizinci y\u00fczy\u0131lda, bilimcilerin ya kendileri zengindi, ya da zengin i\u015fverenlerce desteklenirdi.\u00a0 Jean-Baptiste Chappe d\u2019Auteroche ve Guillaume le Gentil k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck Frans\u0131z asillerdi. Christian Mayer ve Andras Lexell Rus \u0130mparotori\u00e7esi B\u00fcy\u00fck Catherina taraf\u0131ndan desteklendi. Charles Mason ve Jeremiah Dixon, \u0130ngiltere’de kat\u0131l\u0131mla olu\u015fturulan fonlarla Sumatra’ya do\u011fru yola \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131lar.<\/p>\n

Her hangi bir merkezi bilimsel ar\u015fiv de yoktu. Frans\u0131z, Rus, ve \u0130sve\u00e7 y\u00f6neticilerinin destekledi\u011fi bilim akademileri vard\u0131. Ancak, en etkin bilimsel kurulu\u015f Londra Kraliyet Toplulu\u011fu’ydu.\u00a0 T\u00fcm Avrupa’daki yazarlar Kraliyet Toplulu\u011fu toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda okunmak \u00fczere mektuplar g\u00f6nderirdi.\u00a0 \u00d6rne\u011fin, Anton Leeuwenhoek, mikroskopun mucidi, Hollanda’daki evinden \u00e7\u0131plak g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u015feylerin \u00e7izimlerini g\u00f6nderdi. Macerac\u0131lar \u00e7ok uzaklardaki yeni ke\u015ffedilen kara par\u00e7alar\u0131ndaki g\u00f6zlemlerini g\u00f6nderdiler.\u00a0 Rahip Thomas Bayes\u00a0derin matematiksel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerini sundu.\u00a0 Kraliyet Toplulu\u011fu Ven\u00fcs ge\u00e7i\u015fi g\u00f6zlemlemelerini d\u00fczenlemeye ve 1769’daki ge\u00e7i\u015ften sonra Yery\u00fcz\u00fc’n\u00fcn G\u00fcne\u015f’e olan uzakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirlemek i\u00e7in bunlar\u0131 bir araya getirmeye karara verdi.<\/p>\n

1761’den sonra g\u00f6zlemler gelmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.\u00a0 \u00a01769’daki ge\u00e7i\u015fi yakalamak i\u00e7in, St.Petersburg, Kanada, Baja Kaliforniya,\u00a0 Tahiti(\u00fcnl\u00fc Kaptan Cook buna kat\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131) , Norve\u00e7, Filadelfiya, ve Manila’ya seyahat eden maceraperestlerle daha da b\u00fcy\u00fck uyum i\u00e7inde bir \u00e7aba harcand\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu maceraperestler tehlikeden uzak de\u011fildi.\u00a0 1756’da, \u0130ngiltere ve Fransa ve m\u00fcttefikleri aras\u0131nda sava\u015f patlad\u0131. Birle\u015fik Devletler’de bu,\u00a0 George Washington’un sava\u015fmay\u0131 \u00f6\u011frendi\u011fi Frans\u0131z ve Yerliler Sava\u015f\u0131 olarak hat\u0131rlan\u0131r. Avrupa’da Yedi Y\u0131l Sava\u015f\u0131 olarak bilinir ve bu sava\u015f 1763’e kadar s\u00fcrer. \u00a01761 ge\u00e7i\u015fi i\u00e7in, kendilerini sava\u015f hatlar\u0131ndan ge\u00e7irece\u011fini umduklar\u0131 \u0130ngiliz ve Frans\u0131z diplomatlar\u0131n\u0131n mektuplar\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yorlard\u0131. Ancak, bu mektuplar her zaman yeterli olmuyordu.<\/p>\n

Charles Mason ve Jeremiah Dixon \u0130ngiltere’den 1761 ge\u00e7i\u015fi i\u00e7in yola \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131klar\u0131nda, gemileri bir Frans\u0131z gemisi taraf\u0131ndan sald\u0131r\u0131ya u\u011frad\u0131, 10 gemici \u00f6ld\u00fc ve harap gemileri limana geri d\u00f6nmek zorunda kald\u0131. Guillaume le Gentil, \u0130ngilizlerin \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm yapmaya niyetlendi\u011fi Hindistan’daki Frans\u0131z kolonisini ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, Hint Okyanusu’nda yoldayken \u00f6\u011frendi.\u00a0 Gemi geri d\u00f6n\u00fcp Mauritius’a y\u00f6neldi, ancak le Gentil ge\u00e7i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fcnde denizde savrulan bir gemideydi ve \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm yapmak i\u00e7in sabit bir zemini yoktu.\u00a0 1769 ge\u00e7i\u015fi i\u00e7in g\u00f6zlemler daha huzurlu bir d\u00fcnyada al\u0131nd\u0131 ve daha iyiceydi.<\/p>\n

Maceraperestlerin i\u00e7inde, tek \u015fanss\u0131z ki\u015fi\u00a0 Guillaume le Gentil’di. 1761 ge\u00e7i\u015fini, Hint Okyanusu’nda bir gemide oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in ka\u00e7\u0131rd\u0131. 1769 ge\u00e7i\u015fi i\u00e7in b\u00f6lgede kald\u0131 ve\u00a0 Filipinler’den izlemeye karar verdi. Manila’daki \u0130spanyol yetkililer ondan ku\u015fkuland\u0131lar ve g\u00f6revini anlamad\u0131lar, ama o ayg\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 kurup\u00a0 g\u00f6ky\u00fcz\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131k oldu\u011fu bir gecede g\u00f6klerdeki harikalar\u0131 \u0130spanyol yetkililer ve e\u015flerine g\u00f6sterebildi.\u00a0 Le Gentil 1769 ge\u00e7i\u015fine haz\u0131rlanarak Manila’da 3 y\u0131l ge\u00e7irdi, ancak Frans\u0131z Bilim Akademisi taraf\u0131ndan 1768’de, Hindistan’daki Fransa taraf\u0131ndan hen\u00fcz geri al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f olan\u00a0Pondicherry’e d\u00f6nmeye zorland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7i\u015ften \u00f6nceki gece, Pondicherry’deki g\u00f6ky\u00fcz\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131, ancak ge\u00e7i\u015f g\u00fcn\u00fcnde, y\u0131\u011f\u0131lan ve G\u00fcne\u015f’i g\u00f6rmeyi engelleyen bulutlarla hava git gide k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fti. Manila’da ise, G\u00fcne\u015f’i g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fclemek i\u00e7in m\u00fckemmel a\u00e7\u0131k bir hava vard\u0131. Fransa’ya d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, kendisinden uzun zaman haber al\u0131namay\u0131nca \u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn ilan edildi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Kar\u0131s\u0131 yeniden evlenmi\u015f, ye\u011fenleri servetini payla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak, le Gentil i\u00e7in her \u015fey kaybedilmi\u015f de\u011fildi. Maceralar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6yk\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc yazd\u0131, ve bu an\u0131lar Avrupa’da en \u00e7ok satan kitap oldu.\u00a0 1992’de, Kanadal\u0131 yazar, Maureen Hunter, “Ven\u00fcs’\u00fcn Ge\u00e7i\u015fi” ad\u0131 ile le Gentil\u2019in seyahatlerini \u00f6nce bir oyuna, ve sonra 2007’de, bir opera metnine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ge\u00e7i\u015fleri yakalamak i\u00e7in yola \u00e7\u0131kan maceraperestlerin tam \u00f6yk\u00fcs\u00fc Kaynak [3, 4]’de bulunabilir.<\/p>\n

1769 ge\u00e7i\u015fini izleyen aylarda, bu maceraperestlerin son g\u00f6zlemleri Londra Kraliyet Toplulu\u011fu’na g\u00f6nderildi. Kraliyet Toplulu\u011fu rakamlar\u0131 incelemek ve Yery\u00fcz\u00fc’n\u00fcn G\u00fcne\u015f’e olan uzakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamada kullanmak \u00fczere bir komite g\u00f6revlendirdi.\u00a0 Bu komitenin ba\u015f\u0131nda Lord Henry Cavendish vard\u0131.\u00a0 Cavendish ailesi en az iki nesildir bilimsel giri\u015fimlerle ilgiliydiler, ancak astronomi, kimya, biyoloji, ve fizi\u011fe \u00f6nemli katk\u0131lar\u0131 olan Henry Cavendish i\u00e7lerinde en se\u00e7kin olan\u0131yd\u0131. Henry Cavendish hidrojenin do\u011fas\u0131n\u0131 incelemi\u015f, Yery\u00fcz\u00fc’n\u00fcn yo\u011funlu\u011funu \u00f6l\u00e7m\u00fc\u015f, mayalanman\u0131n do\u011fas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermi\u015f, ve bilimi \u00e7ok dikkatli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlere dayal\u0131 yapma hareketinde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\u00a0 Zaman\u0131n \u201cDo\u011fa filozoflar\u0131\u201d\u00a0 duvarlarla farkl\u0131 disiplinlere ayr\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in,\u00a0 Henry Cavendish gibi bir dahi bir \u00e7ok alanda katk\u0131da bulunabildi.<\/p>\n

Cavendish komitesi toplant\u0131lar\u0131n dikkatli bir kayd\u0131n\u0131 tuttu, kay\u0131tlar ve kendilerine iletilen \u00f6zg\u00fcn veriler Kraliyet Toplulu\u011fu’nda ar\u015fivlendi. (Stigler(1977) bu kay\u0131tlar\u0131 kullanarak\u00a0 Cavendish komitesinin ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 iyile\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in\u00a0 bilgisayar-yo\u011fun istatistiksel y\u00f6ntemleri uygulad\u0131.) Nas\u0131l devam etmeliydiler?<\/p>\n

Edmund Halley, Ven\u00fcs ge\u00e7i\u015fi Yery\u00fcz\u00fc’ndeki iki noktadan g\u00f6zlenecekse, Yery\u00fcz\u00fc’n\u00fcn G\u00fcne\u015f’e olan uzakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaplamada bir noktadan di\u011ferine olan uzakl\u0131k ve zamanlama fark\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131labilece\u011fini \u00f6nermi\u015fti.\u00a0 Standartlar\u0131 sa\u011flayan ka\u00e7 g\u00f6zlem bulduklar\u0131na dayal\u0131 olarak do\u011fruluk kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir iki \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm ekvatorun iki taraf\u0131nda yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015fsa\u00a0 en fazla olsa da,\u00a0 \u00a0Cavendish komitesinin elinde b\u00f6yle 45 kadar g\u00f6zlem \u00e7ifti bulunabilirdi. Hangi g\u00f6zlem \u00e7ifti kullan\u0131lmal\u0131yd\u0131?<\/p>\n

Yirminci y\u00fczy\u0131lda \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f istatistiksel modeller ortaya \u00e7\u0131kana kadar, bilimciler deneysel sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n ya da g\u00f6zlemlerin b\u00f6yle bir y\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 ele al\u0131r ve i\u00e7lerinden en iyilerini ya da bir tanesi se\u00e7erlerdi.\u00a0 \u00a0\u00d6rne\u011fin,\u00a0 1870lerde Albert Michelson \u0131\u015f\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 Washington, DC deki Deniz G\u00f6zlemevi’nde \u00f6l\u00e7meye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi aynalar\u0131n iki farkl\u0131 yolu \u00fczerine ince bir beyaz \u0131\u015f\u0131k \u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6ndermekti. Bir do\u011frultudaki aynalar\u0131n konumunu, sonunda her iki \u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 izd\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc perde \u00fczerinde giri\u015fimin karanl\u0131k halkas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuncaya kadar, ayarlayabilirdi.\u00a0 \u0130ki yolun uzunluk fark\u0131 \u0131\u015f\u0131k h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mede kullan\u0131labilirdi.<\/p>\n

Bunu yapmak i\u00e7in, Michelson’un saf beyaz \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131n kararl\u0131 bir kayna\u011f\u0131na gereksinimi vard\u0131.\u00a0 O devirde hi\u00e7 bir yapay \u0131\u015f\u0131k kayna\u011f\u0131 gereksinim duydu\u011fu t\u00fcrde \u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fcretecek t\u00fcrden de\u011fildi. Ancak, laboratuar duvar\u0131nda bir \u00e7atlak vard\u0131.\u00a0 G\u00fcnd\u00fczleri k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in G\u00fcne\u015f do\u011frudan bu \u00e7atlaktan \u0131\u015f\u0131yordu.\u00a0 \u00a0Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile, \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerini yapmak i\u00e7in her g\u00fcn k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcresi vard\u0131. T\u00fcm denemelerini kaydetse de, son \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlemesi i\u00e7in yaln\u0131zca k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc kulland\u0131. Bu, deney yapmadaki deneyimine ve hangi denemelerin “do\u011fru” oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyecek sezgisine g\u00fcvendi\u011findendi.<\/p>\n

(Bilimin h\u00fck\u00fcmetler\u00a0 ve kurumlar\u0131n ba\u011f\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla desteklendi\u011fi g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde, g\u00f6zlemlerin ya da deneylerin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnden “do\u011fru” de\u011ferleri se\u00e7mek bilimsel sahtekarl\u0131k olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr.\u00a0 Sayg\u0131n bilimcinin verilerinin t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc sergilemesi beklenir. Bu kitap bunun neden nas\u0131l ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterecek.)<\/p>\n

Bu y\u00fczden, onsekizinci ve ondokuzuncu y\u00fczy\u0131l biliminin ruh haliyle, Cavendish komitesi “do\u011fru” olanlar\u0131n\u0131 ay\u0131klamak i\u00e7in derlenmi\u015f olan verileri inceledi.<\/p>\n

Hatalar<\/h2>\n

\u0130\u00e7ine girdikleri ilk sorun “kara nokta” sorunuydu. Maceraperestlerin Ven\u00fcs kara noktas\u0131n\u0131n ne zaman G\u00fcne\u015f’in diskine girip ne zaman \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tam olarak g\u00f6zlemleyemedikleri anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.\u00a0 Bunun yerine, tam ge\u00e7i\u015f an\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zlemleyemeden, G\u00fcne\u015f diskinin uzant\u0131lar\u0131na yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a esneyen ve b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ve birden diskin i\u00e7inde beliren bir kara nokta g\u00f6rd\u00fcler.\u00a0 Benzer bir sorun kara nokta G\u00fcne\u015f diskinden d\u0131\u015far\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karken de meydana geldi. Halley’in \u00f6nerdi\u011fi hesaplamalar ge\u00e7i\u015f zaman\u0131n\u0131n saniyelere kadar belirlenebilece\u011fini varsay\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n

Bu t\u00fcm bilimsel g\u00f6zlemlerde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan bir sorundur. G\u00f6zlemler birden fazla kez yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda en dikkatli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmler bile farkl\u0131 rakamlar \u00fcretir. Tam \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmleri yineleyebilmedeki bu ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k, ge\u00e7erli kuram\u0131n tek bir par\u00e7ac\u0131\u011fa ili\u015fkin konum, d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 ya da \u00f6l\u00e7meyi istedi\u011fimiz \u00f6zellik her ne ise \u00f6z\u00fcnde rassal oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndeki\u00a0 atom fizi\u011fine kadar uzar gider.<\/p>\n

Bu t\u00fcr \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerdeki farkl\u0131l\u0131klara “hata” diyece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n

Gaflar<\/h2>\n

Ancak, Cavendish komitesi sade rassal hatadan daha fazlas\u0131yla u\u011fra\u015fmak zorunda kald\u0131. Maceraperestlerden birisinin rakamlar\u0131 di\u011fer her hangi biriyle e\u015fle\u015fmiyordu.\u00a0 Onun verdi\u011fi ge\u00e7i\u015f zamanlar\u0131 denklemlere kondu\u011funda, sonu\u00e7lar di\u011fer hesaplamalardan \u00e7ok farkl\u0131yd\u0131. Sonunda onun bulundu\u011fu boylam\u0131 yanl\u0131\u015f belirledi\u011fi sonucunu \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131lar.\u00a0 Ger\u00e7ekten de, onsekizinci y\u00fczy\u0131lda birisinin Yery\u00fcz\u00fc’nde bulundu\u011fu boylam\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mesi \u00e7ok zordu. \u00d6\u011fle zaman\u0131 G\u00fcne\u015f’in ufuktan y\u00fcksekli\u011fi ile enlem kollayca belirlenebiliyordu, ancak boylam bulundu\u011funuz yerde g\u00f6zlemin ve (Greenwich meridyeni) gibi Yery\u00fcz\u00fc’nde sabit bir yerdeki tam zaman bilinerek belirlenmek zorundayd\u0131.\u00a0 \u00a0Do\u011fru boylam\u0131 bulmadaki kusur kara nokta sorunundaki gibi bir “hata” de\u011fildi.\u00a0 \u0130statistik\u00e7i\u00a0 William Sealy Gosset 1920lerde, “hatalar” ve “gaflar” aras\u0131nda bir ayr\u0131m yapt\u0131. Hatalar, \u00f6l\u00e7me eyleminin do\u011fas\u0131ndaki \u00f6l\u00e7mede farkl\u0131l\u0131klard\u0131.\u00a0 Gaflar ba\u015fka bir \u015feydi.\u00a0 Bir keresinde sabit s\u0131cakl\u0131kta tutulmas\u0131 gereken b\u00fcy\u00fck bir mayalama tepkileyicisinde kaydedilmi\u015f s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131 incelemekle u\u011fra\u015f\u0131yordum. Her saat ba\u015f\u0131, s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirlemek i\u00e7in, teknisyenler tepkileyiciden k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir kova maddeyi d\u0131\u015far\u0131 almak, s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mek, ve buna g\u00f6re tepkileyiciye verilen so\u011fuk su ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 ayarlamak zorundayd\u0131.\u00a0 Verilerdeki yeni bir vardiyan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda, s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n aniden d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve\u00a0 y\u00fckseltilmek zorunda kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131, ve, bir sonraki vardiyada, s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n aniden y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmek zorunda kal\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir haftal\u0131k kay\u0131tlar\u0131 inceledik. Bu vardiyalarda ne oldu\u011funu g\u00f6rmek \u00fczere biri g\u00f6nderildi.\u00a0 Tepkileyiciden bir kova madde \u00e7\u0131karmak pis bir i\u015fti.\u00a0 \u0130\u015f\u00e7i metal merdivenlerden \u00e7\u0131kmak, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir bo\u015flu\u011fa ula\u015fmak, ve t\u0131ka\u00e7\u0131 a\u00e7mak zorundayd\u0131.\u00a0 Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile, i\u015f genellikle vardiyadaki en acemi ki\u015fiye veriliyordu. \u0130lk vardiyada \u00f6rne\u011fi \u00e7eken ki\u015finin yeni tutuldu\u011fu, eline kova ve termomentrenin verildi\u011fi, ve mayalama tank\u0131ndaki s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7mesinin s\u00f6ylendi\u011fi \u00f6\u011frenildi. T\u0131rman\u0131p t\u0131kac\u0131 a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131, madde \u00f6rne\u011fini \u00e7ekti\u011fi,\u00a0 termometreyi ald\u0131\u011f\u0131, s\u0131k\u0131ca a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ve yukar\u0131 sallad\u0131\u011f\u0131, kovaya dald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131, bir ka\u00e7 saniye bekledi\u011fi, sonra termometreyi \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131p okumak i\u00e7in \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011fa g\u00f6t\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. G\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc tek termometre, evinde kullanm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi ate\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7en klinik termometreydi.\u00a0 A\u015fa\u011f\u0131 do\u011fru sallanmad\u0131k\u00e7a klinik bir termometrede c\u0131va s\u00fctunundaki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir k\u0131vr\u0131m c\u0131vay\u0131 eri\u015filen en b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011ferde tutar.\u00a0 \u00a0Elindeki termometrenin ortam s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 her ne ise onu kaydetti\u011fini farketmedi, dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile onun tepkileyici s\u0131cakl\u0131k “\u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc”, ger\u00e7ekte, tepkileyici \u00e7evresindeki hava ortam\u0131 s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcyd\u00fc.\u00a0 Gosset’in deyimiyle, \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcmlerinin hepsi de “gaf”d\u0131.<\/p>\n

Yalanlar<\/h2>\n

Maceraperestlerden biri Cavendish komitesini rahats\u0131z etti. Bu \u00f6nceki maceralar\u0131n\u0131n “bulgular”\u0131ndan kimilerini abartt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilinen biriydi. Verilerine g\u00fcvenilebilir miydi?\u00a0 \u00c7a\u011fda\u015f d\u00f6nemin ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri bilimsel etkinlikler sahtekarl\u0131k olaylar\u0131yla k\u00f6t\u00fc durumlara d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.\u00a0 \u00a0D\u00fcnyan\u0131n ger\u00e7ek do\u011fas\u0131n\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131karmak i\u00e7in ka\u015fif ve bilimcilerin \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun d\u00fcr\u00fcst \u00e7abalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, ba\u015fka bir \u015feyin soyutlanm\u0131\u015f \u00f6rnekleri bulunmaktad\u0131r. \u0130lk \u00f6rneklerinden biri olarak, Sebastian Cabot’un 1508’deki ke\u015fif seyahatini ele alal\u0131m. Kral VII. Henry taraf\u0131ndan masraflar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lanan\u00a0Cabot, iki gemi ve \u00fc\u00e7y\u00fcz ki\u015fiyle \u0130ngiltere’nin Bristol liman\u0131ndan yola \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Kuzey Atlantik’i a\u015ft\u0131,\u00a0 Newfoundland’\u0131 buldu, ve Amerika k\u0131tas\u0131ndan Do\u011fu’ya bir kuzeybat\u0131 ge\u00e7idinin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Hudson K\u00f6rfezi’ne seyahat etti. Ancak,\u00a0adamlar\u0131 daha ileri gitmeye isyan etti, ve o da eve d\u00f6nd\u00fc.\u00a0 Hi\u00e7 de\u011filse, seyahatiyle ilgili anlatmas\u0131 beklenen hikaye b\u00f6yleydi. Ancak, bu seyahatin g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde her hangi bir kayd\u0131 bulunmuyor, ve ona ait sahip oldu\u011fumuz t\u00fcm kan\u0131t Sebastian’dan i\u015fitenlerin ifadeleri.\u00a0 Hikayelerinin etkisiyle, \u0130spanya Kral\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan Sebastian Cabot’a Usta Denizci ad\u0131 verildi, ve gelecekte \u0130spanya’dan Yeni D\u00fcnya’ya t\u00fcm seyahatleri y\u00f6netme yetkisi verildi. [5]\u00a0 1508’deki yolculu\u011funu do\u011frulayan her hangi bir bilgimiz olmasa da,\u00a0 \u00e7a\u011fda\u015f ele\u015ftirmenlerden onun bir palavrac\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve farkl\u0131 ki\u015filere yolculu\u011funun farkl\u0131 hikayelerini anlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz.\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Acemi denizcili\u011fiyle\u00a0 ve pusuya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcp adamlar\u0131ndan \u00e7o\u011funu \u00f6ld\u00fcren Yerlileri k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtan davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla\u00a0 y\u00fcz\u00fcne g\u00f6z\u00fcne bula\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130spanya’n\u0131n 1526’daki G\u00fcney Amerika seferine \u00f6nderlik yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz.\u00a0 \u00a0Neyse ki, bilimin Sebastian Cabot’lar\u0131 az, ama hi\u00e7 yap\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f deneylerden veri yay\u0131nlayan, \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 “kan\u0131tlamak” i\u00e7in \u00fczerinde oynanm\u0131\u015f foto\u011fraflar\u0131 g\u00f6steren, ve hi\u00e7 olmayan ikiz \u00e7iftleri \u00fczerine ayr\u0131nt\u0131 g\u00f6zlem sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zenle a\u00e7\u0131klayanlar\u0131 oradalar.\u00a0 \u00a0Bir zaman, bir bilimcinin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131ndan kazanabilece\u011fi en fazla \u015fey sayg\u0131nl\u0131kt\u0131. Ve, yine de bu sayg\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 elde etmek i\u00e7in verilerle oynayan birileri vard\u0131.\u00a0 Ancak, II. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sona erdi\u011finden beri, bilim daha bir kazan\u00e7l\u0131 “i\u015f” oldu. Ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir bilimci \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6netimler ya da \u00f6zel kurulu\u015flar\u0131n \u00f6denekleriyle desteklenece\u011fini umabilir. D\u00fcr\u00fcst olmayan bir bilimci i\u00e7in para ve sayg\u0131nl\u0131k yeminin \u00e7ok fazla oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131k .\u00a0 Verilerin pi\u015firildi\u011fini ya da uyduruldu\u011funu nas\u0131l bilebilirsiniz? Bu kitab\u0131n IV. b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc yalanc\u0131lar\u0131 belirlemede istatistiksel y\u00f6ntemlerin nas\u0131l kullan\u0131labilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\u00a0 Peki, t\u00fcm bunlardan sonra, Yery\u00fcz\u00fc G\u00fcne\u015f’ten ne kadar uzakta? Cavendish komitesinin tahmini bundan yaln\u0131zca %4 kadar farkl\u0131yd\u0131\u2014\u00e7a\u011fda\u015f istatistiksel y\u00f6ntemler olmadan do\u011fru yan\u0131t\u0131 bulmak i\u00e7in “kara nokta” sorununun \u00fcstesinden gelmek zorunda olan bir onsekizinci y\u00fczy\u0131l komitesi i\u00e7in hi\u00e7 de fena de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Salsburg, \u00a0David S. (2017)<\/a>‘den T\u00fcrk\u00e7ele\u015ftirildi.<\/h6>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Nathaniel Domek’in “Bir paralaks \u00f6rne\u011fi canland\u0131rmas\u0131”. Bak\u0131\u015f noktas\u0131 bir yandan di\u011ferine hareket ettik\u00e7e, uzaktaki nesneler daha yava\u015f hareket ederken kameraya yak\u0131n nesnelerin daha h\u0131zl\u0131 hareket etti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n

Kaynaklar<\/strong><\/h2>\n
    \n
  1. \n
    Transit of Venus and the Distance to the Sun<\/a><\/h6>\n<\/li>\n
  2. \n
    The Mathematics of the Transit of Venus<\/a><\/h6>\n<\/li>\n
  3. \n
    \n
    \n
    \n
    A Brief History of the Transit of Venus<\/a><\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n
  4. \n
    Transit of Venus in History: 1631 -1716<\/a><\/h6>\n<\/li>\n
  5. \n
    Roberts, D. (1982) Great Exploration Hoaxes<\/em>. San Francisco, CA: Sierra Club Books: 24\u201339.<\/h6>\n<\/li>\n
  6. \n
    The Cultural Impact of the Transit of Venus<\/a><\/h6>\n<\/li>\n
  7. \n
    Stigler, Stephen M. (1977)<\/a> Do Robust Estimators Work with Real Data?, The Annals of Statistics<\/em>, 5(6):1055-1098.<\/h6>\n
    \n
    Salsburg, \u00a0David S. (2017)<\/a> Errors, Blunders, and Lies: How to Tell the Difference<\/em>, CRC Press Taylor & Francis. s:3-14’ten T\u00fcrk\u00e7ele\u015ftirildi.<\/h6>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Yery\u00fcz\u00fc G\u00fcne\u015f’ten ne kadar uzakta?\u00a0Eski Yunan’dan beri bilimci ve filozoflar\u0131n sordu\u011fu bir soru bu.\u00a0 G\u00fcne\u015f sisteminin ke\u015ffinde \u00f6nemli bir rol oynar.\u00a0 \u00a0Yery\u00fcz\u00fc’nden G\u00fcne\u015f’e olan uzakl\u0131\u011fa bir astronomik birim(AU) denir.\u00a0 \u00d6rne\u011fin, J\u00fcpiter gezegeni, g\u00fcne\u015ften 5,46 AU, yani Yery\u00fcz\u00fc’n\u00fcn G\u00fcne\u015f’e olan uzakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 5,46 kat\u0131 uzakl\u0131ktad\u0131r.\u00a0 Peki ama, bir AU bildi\u011fimiz uzunluk \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcleri cinsinden ne kadar? 1716 da…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1352","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-istatistik"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1352","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1352"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1352\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1735,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1352\/revisions\/1735"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1352"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1352"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1352"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}