{"id":1456,"date":"2018-04-30T18:59:44","date_gmt":"2018-04-30T15:59:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/?p=1456"},"modified":"2018-04-30T18:59:44","modified_gmt":"2018-04-30T15:59:44","slug":"pascalin-buyuk-karari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/pascalin-buyuk-karari\/","title":{"rendered":"Pascal’\u0131n B\u00fcy\u00fck Karar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

Blaise Pascal(1623-1662), \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnden sonra derlenen \u201cD\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceler<\/em>\u201cinde, her insan\u0131n eninde sonunda girmek zorunda oldu\u011fu bir oyundan s\u00f6z eder.[1] Her oyunda oldu\u011fu gibi, bu oyunda da, oyunun sonucunu \u00f6nceden\u00a0\u00f6n g\u00f6rmek<\/em>\u00a0ve oyunun sonucuna g\u00f6re de\u00a0kazanmak ya da kaybetmek<\/em>\u00a0var. Pascal\u2019a g\u00f6re \u201cTanr\u0131 vard\u0131r.\u201d sav\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frulu\u011fu ya da yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na karar vermek zorunda olan insano\u011flunu d\u00f6rt olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7 beklemektedir: Sav,\u00a0ger\u00e7ekte do\u011fru ya da yanl\u0131\u015f; \u00a0<\/em>ve karar,\u00a0\u00f6nermenin do\u011frulu\u011funu kabul ya da red<\/em>\u00a0\u00a0y\u00f6n\u00fcnde olabilir.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Sonsuz kay\u0131p, Pascal\u2019\u0131n \u00fcstlenemeyece\u011fi kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir tehlike oldu\u011fundan, o \u201cTanr\u0131 ger\u00e7ekte var olmasa da, O\u2019nun varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131r.\u201d\u00a0 B\u00f6ylece, kaderle oynamak zorunda oldu\u011fu\u00a0 oyunu, olas\u0131 iki sonucu \u00a0(a) sonsuz kazan\u00e7 ve (b) sonlu kay\u0131p olan bir konuma indirger.\u00a0E\u011fer Pascal\u2019\u0131n kurdu\u011fu bu karar oyunu a) veya d) bi\u00e7iminde sonu\u00e7lan\u0131rsa, karar verici do\u011fru karar vermi\u015f olacak ve kazan\u00e7l\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kacak; aksi durumda yanl\u0131\u015f karar vermi\u015f olacak ve kaybedecektir. Ancak ak\u0131lc\u0131 biri, b\u00f6yle bir \u00f6nermenin do\u011frulu\u011funa ya da yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na olan inanc\u0131n\u0131,\u00a0 oyun sonucu\u00a0 kazanc\u0131n\u0131n ya da kayb\u0131n\u0131n ne olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne alarak belirleyebilir. Pascal da \u00f6yle yapar.\u00a0 E\u011fer Tanr\u0131 varsa\u00a0 ve O\u2019nun varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kabul edilmi\u015fse, bu do\u011fru karar, Tanr\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kullar\u0131na s\u00f6z verdi\u011fi Cennet ile \u00f6d\u00fcllendirilecek; O\u2019nun varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 red edilmi\u015f ise, bu yanl\u0131\u015f karar, Tanr\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kullar\u0131na s\u00f6z verdi\u011fi Cehennem ile cezaland\u0131r\u0131lacakt\u0131r. E\u011fer Tanr\u0131 yoksa\u00a0 ve O\u2019nun varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 kabul edilmi\u015fse, bu yanl\u0131\u015f karar sonucu, Tanr\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7izdi\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlar i\u00e7inde ya\u015fayan insan bu d\u00fcnyan\u0131n nimetlerinden istedi\u011fi gibi yararlanamayacak;\u00a0 O\u2019nun varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 red edilmi\u015f ise, bu do\u011fru karar sonucu, Tanr\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7izdi\u011fi s\u0131n\u0131rlarlara ald\u0131rmadan ya\u015fayan insan bu d\u00fcnyan\u0131n nimetlerinden istedi\u011fi gibi yararlanabilecektir. Pascal\u2019\u0131n bu de\u011ferlendirmesine g\u00f6re, Tanr\u0131\u2019n\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 red ya da kabul etmek zorunda olan insano\u011flunun kaderle bu oyunu, oyunun olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re ilk bak\u0131\u015fta sonsuz kay\u0131p ve sonsuz kazan\u00e7, ya da, insan \u00f6mr\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re bu d\u00fcnya nimetlerinden de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir yararlanamama ve yararlanma\u00a0 bi\u00e7iminde\u00a0sonlu kay\u0131p<\/em>\u00a0ve\u00a0sonlu kazan\u00e7<\/em>la sonu\u00e7lanabilir.<\/p>\n

Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesinden dolay\u0131 az daha aforoz ediliyordu Pascal. Papa\u2019ya g\u00f6re, Pascal\u2019\u0131n bu ak\u0131l y\u00fcr\u00fctmesi \u201c\u0130sl\u00e2mi Tanr\u0131\u201dya iman etmenin de yolunu a\u00e7\u0131yordu.[2] M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar\u0131n Tanr\u0131\u2019s\u0131ndan farkl\u0131 bir Tanr\u0131\u2019ya inanan Papa hakl\u0131yd\u0131! Ama Kilise otoritesinin \u015fimdiki s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekilmesi, bu ak\u0131l y\u00fcr\u00fctme yoluyla \u201c\u0130sl\u00e2mi Tanr\u0131\u201d inanc\u0131n\u0131n yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 sonucu olmad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Pascal\u2019\u0131n ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 sav teoloji alan\u0131na girse de, sav\u0131n do\u011fru ya da yanl\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funa ili\u015fkin karar verirken y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ak\u0131l, bug\u00fcn bilimsel savlar\u0131n karara ba\u011flanmas\u0131nda izlenenle ayn\u0131d\u0131r. Bu ak\u0131l y\u00fcr\u00fctmede en dikkate de\u011fer nokta,\u00a0yanl\u0131\u015f karar vermi\u015f<\/em>\u00a0ya da\u00a0do\u011fru karar vermi\u015f<\/em>\u00a0olma sonucu kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131lacak\u00a0kay\u0131p\u00a0<\/em>veya\u00a0kazanc<\/em>\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131 ve karar\u0131n bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcme dayand\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131d\u0131r. Ne var ki, Pascal\u2019\u0131n ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 sav\u0131n karar ortam\u0131ndaki kay\u0131p ya da kazanc\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fc, bu g\u00fcn bilimin temel niteliklerinden biri olan\u00a0nesnellik<\/em>\u00a0ko\u015fulunu sa\u011flamaktan uzakt\u0131. Hangi \u00a0savlar\u0131n Kilise, hangi savlar\u0131n \u00dcniversite taraf\u0131ndan karara ba\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ve didi\u015fmeleri 18.y\u00fczy\u0131l sonlar\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fc.[3] Ta ki, olgusal d\u00fcnyaya ili\u015fkin savlar\u0131n karara ba\u011flanmas\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131labilecek karar hatalar\u0131\u00a0 riskinin nesnel bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc bilimciler bulana dek. Olas\u0131l\u0131k ad\u0131 verilen bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcm\u00fcn temellerini atanlardan biri de yine Pascal oldu ve Kilise ile \u00dcniversite\u2019nin s\u00f6z sahibi oldu\u011fu alanlar\u0131n kesin s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 \u00e7izildi.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ba\u015fvurular<\/strong><\/p>\n

[1]\u00a0Pascal, Blaise (1623-1662)<\/a>Pens\u00e9es<\/em><\/a>, Section III- Of necessity of wager-233.\u00a0http:\/\/www.ccel.org\/ccel\/pascal\/pensees.html<\/a><\/p>\n

[2] Hacking, Ian(1975)\u00a0Emergence of Probability,<\/em>Cambridge University Press.<\/p>\n

[3] Grant, Edward (1984) Orta \u00c7a\u011fda Fizik Bilimleri, T\u00fcrk\u00e7ele\u015ftiren: Aykut G\u00f6ker, Verso Yay\u0131nlar\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Blaise Pascal(1623-1662), \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnden sonra derlenen \u201cD\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceler\u201cinde, her insan\u0131n eninde sonunda girmek zorunda oldu\u011fu bir oyundan s\u00f6z eder.[1] Her oyunda oldu\u011fu gibi, bu oyunda da, oyunun sonucunu \u00f6nceden\u00a0\u00f6n g\u00f6rmek\u00a0ve oyunun sonucuna g\u00f6re de\u00a0kazanmak ya da kaybetmek\u00a0var. Pascal\u2019a g\u00f6re \u201cTanr\u0131 vard\u0131r.\u201d sav\u0131n\u0131n do\u011frulu\u011fu ya da yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na karar vermek zorunda olan insano\u011flunu d\u00f6rt olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7 beklemektedir: Sav,\u00a0ger\u00e7ekte do\u011fru…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1456","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-istatistik"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1456","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1456"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1456\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1467,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1456\/revisions\/1467"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1456"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1456"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.akademikidea.org\/a-kitap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1456"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}